Cost of war

Based on data from SIPRI, Mediazona / BBC, and the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission. All figures are the minimum verified values — the real numbers are higher. Every figure comes with a source and an extrapolation formula, for transparency and to make the calculation method clear.

Day 1595 of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine (since 24 February 2022)
Lower bound · verified

Russia's direct military spending

$430,000,000,000 USD
≈ $400M / day the full economic cost is 1.5–2× higher

Federal budget allocations under "National Defence" since 24 February 2022. Excludes GDP losses from sanctions (KSE: $200–300 billion), spending on "new regions", and undisclosed items.

Methodology and source

How this figure is calculated

Source
SIPRI Military Expenditure Database; Reuters / Минфин РФ
Baseline
$430,000,000,000 USD (December 31, 2025)
Daily rate
$400,000,000 USD
Formula
baseline + (now − baselineDate) × dailyRate

What is NOT included

The figure includes only direct budget allocations to the war. It excludes accumulated GDP losses from sanctions (KSE and EBRD estimate them at $200–300 billion), defence-sector subsidies via state banks, expenditures on occupation administrations, and write-offs of destroyed equipment at book value. The full economic cost of the war for Russia is 1.5–2× higher.

Lower bound · verified

Russian military KIA

230,624 people
≈ 247 / day the actual rate is around 300–500 / day

Russian servicemen confirmed killed by name through obituaries, cemetery records, and regional media reports — compiled by Mediazona and BBC. The database is updated weekly. Excludes those mobilised in "DPR/LPR", Wagner fighters of the Bakhmut period, and foreign mercenaries.

Probate-registry estimate (Mediazona × Meduza, end of 2025): 352,000 people — Mediazona × Meduza — оценка по Probate Registry (на конец 2025)

Methodology and source

How this figure is calculated

Source
Mediazona × BBC Russian Service — поимённый учёт
Baseline
230,624 people (July 2, 2026)
Daily rate
247 people
Formula
baseline + (now − baselineDate) × dailyRate

What is NOT included

Verification by name (the lower figure) is the strictest standard but also the slowest. A parallel estimate by Mediazona × Meduza based on Russia's probate-registry data (inheritance cases for men aged 18–59) puts the total at around 352,000 dead by the end of 2025. What these figures do NOT include: fighters of the 1st and 2nd Army Corps (the so-called "DPR/LPR" formations), formally incorporated into the Russian Armed Forces in September 2022 — many of them were forcibly mobilised from occupied territories, are not registered in Russia, and therefore do not appear in the probate registry (in 2022 alone, around 100,000 men were mobilised in the "DPR/LPR"). Wagner Group fighters from the Bakhmut assault are only partially accounted for. Foreign mercenaries and the North Korean contingent (Western estimates: up to 14,000 in Kursk Oblast) are not included. The total irrecoverable losses of all formations fighting for Russia are higher than 352,000.

Lower bound · verified

Verified Ukrainian civilian deaths

16,126 people
701 of them — children
≈ 8 / day the actual losses are several times higher

Civilian deaths verified by the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU). The most conservative figure — the mission has no access to Mariupol or temporarily occupied territories.

Methodology and source

How this figure is calculated

Source
UN OHCHR — Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU), на 31.05.2026
Baseline
16,126 people (May 30, 2026)
Daily rate
8 people
Formula
baseline + (now − baselineDate) × dailyRate

What is NOT included

HRMMU only includes cases that pass its own verification (witnesses, documents, cross-checks). The real number of civilian deaths is significantly higher. In Mariupol alone, independent estimates range from 8,000 to over 25,000. Casualties on occupied territories, deaths from interrupted medical care, and indirect demographic losses are not counted.

Principles

This is not a "real-time casualty counter" in the colloquial sense. It is a visualisation of orders of magnitude with a transparent method. Every figure is the lower bound of what has been verified, anchored to the most recent source report. Between reports, the value is linearly extrapolated at the average daily rate of recent months. When a new source report is released, the baseline is updated manually.

What is NOT on this page

Wounded and disabled veterans (tens of thousands on the Ukrainian side, hundreds of thousands on the Russian side). Destroyed infrastructure (Kyiv School of Economics RDNA estimates over $150 billion). Refugees and internally displaced persons (UNHCR: around 11 million). Ukrainian children deported to Russia (the Ukrainian registry "Children of War" lists tens of thousands). Environmental damage, generational psychological trauma, lost education, and cultural heritage. This page shows the three most conservative figures. Everything else stands behind them.